I haven’t really blogged much at all lately, let alone about the Republican presidential primaries or the candidates. I will say this: I did not think, going into the process, that Mitt Romney would win. But after the first two contests, I’m pretty convinced, barring some drastic development, that he will. Here’s a little blurb about each candidate, and my opinions on each.
UPDATE (11 p.m.): Politico reports Jon Huntsman is out and will endorse Romney on Monday.
Newt Gingrich — Going negative is bringing Newt’s campaign to an end. When he was staying positive, his poll numbers soared. And when he was hit with negative attacks, he was wounded, but not fatally. Going negative himself, though, changed the angle he was coming from and made his candidacy much more cookie-cutter. If, by some turn, someone besides Romney is the nominee and wins the election, Newt would be a great chief of staff, but I doubt that happens in a Romney administration after everything that’s gone down in the last couple weeks.
Jon Huntsman — It’s kind of surprising that Huntsman hasn’t taken off more. He made a big mistake, though, running to the center instead of to the right. It’s possible to run as a pragmatic conservative and pick up the independent/centrist vote the way Huntsman was aiming to. Instead, he largely alienated himself from the field. He has a really great record as governor and ambassador, but his service in the Obama administration and his excess media attention raised red flags with a lot of conservatives. He explained that all very well, but never took off. He’s a good bet for Secretary of State or some other major diplomatic appointment in a Republican administration.
Ron Paul — I’m pretty sure Ron Paul will stay in through the convention, and that he’ll get a significant amount of delegates. His goal is likely to use that bloc of votes to gain concessions in the party platform. He’s the most principled of the bunch, and if he had presented his foreign policy differently (the Iran thing is killing him), he might be doing better, because his domestic policies are spot-on. He’d be a great Treasury Secretary.
Rick Perry — I love Rick Perry’s platform. I greatly respect his guiding principles and I think he’s got the right ideas. But I can’t stand to listen to him talk. And I cringe when I think of him representing America abroad as president. If you could combine Romney’s presidential composure with Perry’s principles, we’d have a real winner. But unfortunately that’s just not the case. Perry has a future, but likely not as president. Maybe he’ll leave the race after South Carolina and jump into the race for Texas’ U.S. Senate seat. Who knows.
Rick Santorum — Rick Santorum is a big-government conservative. He is not someone that believes in the supremacy of individual liberty. Coming out of an administration that aims almost exclusively to curb freedom, that’s the last kind of nominee the GOP should consider. I will give him the concession of not being as out of the mainstream on social issues as he has been portrayed, but I have a fundamental disagreement with his philosophy of government and I hope his momentum fizzles.
Mitt Romney — If he wins South Carolina and Florida, it’s over. The exit polls from New Hampshire were extremely interesting, and if the polls in SC and FL are similar, it will be very telling. Romney won almost all demographics in New Hampshire. Conservatives, moderates, evangelicals, Catholics, people who view the Tea Party positively, etc. etc. etc. If that continues, it goes to show that despite misgivings about his principles and background, electability will trump all of it to make people vote for Romney anyway.
This is an interesting point, in that conservative talk show hosts and bloggers and pundits keep pushing this idea that conservatives don’t want Romney and won’t vote for him. Even though, up to this point, they are. If Romney’s momentum continues and he snags the nomination early, that’s going to have to stop because it plays into the narrative that Republicans are too fractured and disgruntled to win. In addition, it makes them look disconnected from the grassroots in the same way they argue that the “liberal” mainstream media is disconnected from mainstream Americans, undercutting their credibility.
South Carolina and Florida will be really telling in all of this, and might end the process before it’s really had a chance to play out and develop even more. Hopefully the divisive and spiteful tone that things have taken of late will simmer down a bit.
